Heavy transport’s critical role in the net zero energy transition

Truck transport accounts for less than 10% of the global road vehicle fleet, but the large diesel engines used and the high average annual mileage mean that the truck sector contributes to about 40% of the global road transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions.

This is roughly 5% of all CO2 emissions from fossil fuels worldwide. This disproportionate contribution to emissions makes trucks a priority target if the goal of a net zero world is to be achieved. So says the latest Electric and Fuel Cell Trucks 2023-2043 report from IDTechEx.

We review the trends in this sector with Daniel Burrows, a graduate in Physics from Imperial College London and in Climate Studies from Stanford, and founder and CEO of TruckLabs, an American startup whose goal is to make truck fleets more efficient and sustainable.

According to this expert, solving the problem in local transport is relatively simple (by electrifying the fleet). The problem comes for long distances, where an energy source with high energy density is needed. At present, batteries are neither efficient nor dense enough.

Daniel Burrows was part of the Future Trends Forum Building a net zero world, together with another thirty international experts.

Following are the major challenges and opportunities in transportation sector’s energy transition:

Heavy transport towards a net zero world

There are two main trends that will characterize the energy transition of heavy road transport towards zero emissions:

1.- Increased efficiency throughout the distribution chain.

2.- Alternatives to clean energy sources.

Increasing efficiency

The first trend has to do with the optimization of routes, interconnection points and, in general, the whole supply chain. Also included in this group are aerodynamic efficiency solutions for trucks, such as those developed by TruckLabs, the aforementioned startup, which a few months ago raised a financing round of $15 million. For every truck that installs its TruckWings device, it saves the equivalent in emissions of taking two passenger vehicles off the road each year.

These solutions all share the use of artificial intelligence and Big Data to accelerate the process of creating applications. Solutions for optimizing routes, tracking, and managing vehicle fleets also use the Internet of Things (IoT), with smart devices installed in trucks, containers and logistics centers. These devices collect data and, when required, can trigger certain actions.

An example of a Spanish startup in this sector is OnTruck, which has developed a platform with a predictive model based on artificial intelligence, with machine learning, to offer companies regional freight transport services, through an immediate and transparent price management system.

New energy sources

The second, much more important and decisive trend is the development of zero-emission trucks, and includes:

• battery electric trucks and 
• hydrogen fuel cell trucks. 

Below is a more detailed look at these trends.

Electric trucks, when will they be ready?

With today’s batteries and the recharging points network, it is hard to imagine the electrification of the truck fleet. But there are very innovative initiatives that could lead, in a few years, to truly functional and economical solutions. Some examples of these are:

• Tesla has been investing in electric trucks for years. In fact, in 2017 they presented the first prototype of the so-called Tesla Semi.  Now, in 2022, they are already allowing booking of the truck, although it is not yet known when they will start to produce it. According to the manufacturer, the consumption of its electric truck will be about 124 kWh per 100 kilometers. If it has a range of 800 km (500 miles), as advertised, it would have to have a battery of about 1 MWh capacity. In parallel, they are developing specific chargers that will recharge 70% of the battery in 30 minutes.
• Einride is a Swedish startup, which manufactures a fully electric and autonomous truck. The truck has an autonomy level 4 with remote control capability. Einride was the first company in the world to operate an autonomous, electric charging vehicle on a public road in 2019. The promising startup has raised a total of $152.3 million in funding, according to crunchbase. Just a few months ago, the small truck developed by Einride, called Einride Pod, has gained approval to run on public roads in the U.S. and they plan to conduct real-world testing there in the third quarter of this year. Being very promising, we see that they are still in fairly early pilot phases.

Trying to answer the question of when, and looking at the two examples above, it would not be surprising to see the first electric trucks circulating around 2025. This is a year in which, on the other hand, it seems that there will be scalable and marketable solid electrolyte battery alternatives, which promise much higher energy density.

Will hydrogen be the solution for net zero heavy transport?  

The emerging alternative to the electric truck is the green hydrogen fuel cell truck. If the challenges outlined in the article Green hydrogen: the fuel of the future?(in Spanish) are met, hydrogen could become the solution, not only for heavy road transport, but also, in the future, for maritime and air transport.

Experts who participated in the Future Trends Forum Building a net zero world, such as Marcelino Oreja, advocate hydrogen as the transport fuel of the future.

There are state-of-the-art initiatives, such as the truck recently presented by Volvo, which, according to the company, will have a range of up to 1,000 kilometers and a refueling time of less than 15 minutes. There are other major manufacturers with similar prototypes, such as Mercedes-Benz and Toyota.

All of them intend to have hydrogen fuel cell trucks available on the market by the end of this decade.

We will closely follow the innovations in this sector, which promise significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.