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The launch industry, once dominated by large aerospace companies primarily serving government contracts, has undergone significant transformation in recent years, largely due to new private players. SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk in 2002, has been a major disruptor with its Falcon 9 rocket featuring a reusable first stage, significantly lowering launch costs and increasing operational agility. In 2018, SpaceX led the market with 21 successful launches and is developing heavy-lift vehicles like Falcon Heavy and the long-term Starship/Super Heavy. Similarly, Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin is developing the New Glenn rocket with a reusable first stage, expected to reduce costs when it becomes operational in 2021.
Another emerging player, Rocket Lab, focuses on frequent launches of small satellites using its Electron rocket, capable of launching payloads up to 225 kilos into Low Earth Orbit. Operational since 2018, Rocket Lab aims to increase launch frequency with new facilities in the US and New Zealand. The small satellite launch segment is rapidly growing, with numerous companies worldwide, including Spain’s PLD Space and various Chinese startups, developing dedicated small launchers. With 114 orbital launches in 2018, this sector is valued at $27 billion and is expected to grow substantially due to falling costs and rising demand, with market estimates predicting a value exceeding €10 billion by the end of 2019 and potentially expanding several-fold by 2040.
The space industry is working in new ways of reaching space.
The launch industry has traditionally been dominated by large, well-established companies from the aerospace industry. They build according to specifications from governmental bodies even if they subsequently use their rockets or shuttles for commercial purposes.
However, both this area and satellite manufacturing have experienced significant changes in recent years. The main disruption is caused by SpaceX, founded by Elon Musk in 2002. Since 2010, it has been successfully using its Falcon 9 rocket (whose first stage is reusable) among other developments. The company has significantly reduced launch costs and become quite agile. In 2018, 21 launches were successfully completed. The company boasted the most launches in 2018 and is also willing to revolutionize the segment of heavy launchers with the Falcon Heavy (operational in 2019 ) and Starship/Super Heavy, their super heavy launcher, in the long-term. Blue Origin, Jeff Bezo’s company, is also working on a heavy launcher. The New Glenn, whose reusable first stage will allow for a reduction in launch costs, will not be operational until 2021.
On the other side of the market, another company is rewriting the rules.Rocket Lab promises frequent–though not necessarily cheaper–launches in their Electrón rocket. Any client who has a satellite of up to 225 kilos to launch into Low Earth Orbit can have an Electron rocket almost immediately. The company can produce up to one rocket per week in their factory. The Electron rocket was operational in 2018 and the company’s 2019 goal is to increase their launch cadence to a maximum of one per month. This will be easier to accomplish once they open their second launching facility in the United States; the first is in New Zealand.
The fastest-growing segment is, in fact, launchers for small satellites. There’s a myriad of companies working on their own launchers, such as PLD Space in Spain. Their shuttles Miura 5, whose first flight test is scheduled for the end of 2021, has been picked by the European Space Agency as the future European microsatellite launcher. There are also dozens of Chinese companies working on this segment, now that authorities have opened up the space industry.
With 114 orbital launches in 2018–the most since1990- this segment of the space industry is worth $27 billion. Launch costs are falling, and estimates show that demand will continue to rise because there will be an increasing number of customers that can afford launches. Estimates vary, but some say the segment could grow eightfold by 2040 (Bank of America Merril Lynch) or twofold (Morgan Stanley). It is estimated that the market could be worth over 10.3 billion euros by the end of 2019.
According to some estimates, the market may surpass €10 billion by the end of 2019.