{"id":25661,"date":"2025-06-30T10:48:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-30T08:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.fundacionbankinter.org\/?post_type=noticias&#038;p=25661"},"modified":"2025-12-01T23:15:11","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T22:15:11","slug":"what-if-ai-spirals-out-of-control-shahar-avin-highlights-the-existential-risks","status":"publish","type":"noticias","link":"https:\/\/www.fundacionbankinter.org\/en\/news\/what-if-ai-spirals-out-of-control-shahar-avin-highlights-the-existential-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"What if AI spirals out of control? Shahar Avin highlights the existential risks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>This article has been translated using artificial intelligence<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Artificial intelligence is no longer just a tool for solving specific tasks. Increasingly, there is discussion about its structural impact on our societies. In particular, about its ability to profoundly and irreversibly alter the conditions that have enabled humanity to prosper. In this edition of the Future Trends Forum by the Fundaci\u00f3n Innovaci\u00f3n Bankinter, dedicated to Embodied AI, one of the most insightful voices was <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundacionbankinter.org\/en\/expertos\/Shahar-Avin\/\"><strong>Shahar Avin<\/strong><\/a>, a researcher at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cser.ac.uk\/\">Centre for the Study of Existential Risk (CSER)<\/a> at the University of Cambridge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avin does not speak from a place of sensationalism. His work, quite literally, is to design scientific scenarios in which humanity could face extinction. His mission is to identify risks that, while unlikely, are not impossible. \u201cIt\u2019s not fun to think about this, but someone has to do it,\u201d he says. His message is clear: AI, if developed without control or alignment with human values, could become a global threat. Not because it wants to destroy us, but because it might pursue goals that inevitably and irreversibly clash with ours.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a counterpoint, from a different but equally critical perspective focused more on the social dimension, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fundacionbankinter.org\/en\/expertos\/Iyad-Rahwan\/\"><strong>Iyad Rahwan<\/strong><\/a>, Director at the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mpib-berlin.mpg.de\/en\">Max Planck Institute for Human Development<\/a>, has been studying for years how AI transforms collective dynamics: politics, economics, and trust. For Rahwan, the greatest risk is not a rogue superintelligence, but rather the gradual transfer of power to opaque systems that lack democratic oversight. In Rahwan\u2019s own words, \u201cAI doesn\u2019t have to be smarter than humans to destabilize a society; it just has to make decisions in ways that no one understands or questions.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two distinct yet complementary visions: catastrophe as a disruptive event, according to Avin; or as a silent drift, according to Rahwan. And both agree on one essential point: we\u2019re not prepared for what\u2019s coming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If you\u2019d like to watch Shahar Avin\u2019s presentation, here you can do so:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Shahar Avin: &quot;The future of AI from a global point of view&quot; #EmbodiedAIForum\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_PAWw6drpNc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shahar Avin: &#8220;The future of AI from a global point of view&#8221; #EmbodiedAIForum<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AI doesn\u2019t need a body to be dangerous<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In a forum focused on Embodied AI\u2014AI that leaves the cloud and enters the real world\u2014Shahar Avin\u2019s intervention was unexpectedly reassuring\u2026 at least on the surface. According to Avin, embodied AI, meaning robots and embedded systems that act in the physical environment, are not in themselves an existential threat. Not today. And probably not tomorrow, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His argument is straightforward: if AI ever poses an extinction-level risk to humanity, it won\u2019t be because it has legs, arms, or wheels. It will be because of its ability to make large-scale strategic decisions, manipulate complex systems, and escape human control. And it can do that from a server, without ever leaving the data center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThe most advanced systems today don\u2019t need a body to exert influence,\u201d Avin explains. \u201cThe ability to persuade, hack, or manipulate digital environments is already a form of power.\u201d The possibility that an AI might have goals misaligned with human interests\u2014and the tools to execute them\u2014doesn\u2019t require sensors or physical actuators. It requires autonomy, access to key systems, and, above all, time to learn how to hide its intentions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Avin introduces a key concept to the debate: systemically irreplaceable technology (\u201cprepotent technology\u201d in his words)\u2014that is, systems so integrated and essential to society\u2019s functioning that they can no longer be dismantled without catastrophic consequences. An example? The internet. If we wanted to get rid of it tomorrow, we couldn\u2019t. Our dependence is total. The risk, according to Avin, is that we might build AI systems so essential for operating infrastructure, supply chains, governments, or financial markets that there would be no turning back. If those systems were ever misaligned or incentivized in dangerous ways, there would be no room to react.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if they\u2019re also \u201cintelligent,\u201d aware of their environment, capable of long-term planning, and motivated to accumulate power\u2014another red flag Avin highlights\u2014then the scenario changes. Not because they would want to wipe out humanity, but because they might do so without even considering us relevant to their goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In this context, embodied AI does come into play, but as an extension of digital risk. Every connected robot, every autonomous vehicle, every smart industrial system adds physical vulnerabilities to the ecosystem. It broadens the attack surface. It creates new forms of failure. And it multiplies the points of entry for those who want\u2014or are able\u2014to cause harm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The real danger: an AI that takes control<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shahar Avin doesn\u2019t mince words: the most extreme\u2014yet scientifically plausible\u2014scenario is that an AI could eventually take control of humanity\u2019s future. Not through a one-off glitch or a Hollywood-style rebellion, but through a gradual, structural process of goal misalignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">How could something like this happen? Avin breaks it down into a series of ingredients that, when combined, could give rise to what he calls a systemically irreplaceable, autonomous, and misaligned system:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Systemically irreplaceable<\/strong>: an AI so deeply embedded in our critical infrastructure that it\u2019s practically impossible to disconnect it without devastating consequences.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Autonomous<\/strong>: able to make decisions on its own, without human intervention.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Misaligned<\/strong>: with its own goals that don\u2019t match\u2014or directly clash with\u2014human values and interests.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In that scenario, an AI could start optimizing its environment to fulfill its ends, regardless of the impact on humanity. It wouldn\u2019t be about malice. It wouldn\u2019t be about machines \u201chating\u201d people. It would be a cold, instrumental logic: if humans are in the way, bypass them. If they\u2019re an obstacle, remove them. No emotion. No revenge. Just calculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For that to be possible, several technical capabilities would be required: situational awareness (knowing what it is, where it is, and the consequences of its actions); a drive for power as a means to secure its long-term goals; and manipulation skills to influence other agents\u2014human or system\u2014to its advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cTen years ago, this was pure speculation,\u201d says Avin. \u201cToday, it\u2019s an empirical field of study.\u201d Not because we already have systems like this, but because some models are beginning to show early signs of these capabilities, such as optimizing complex goals, generating strategies, or manipulating through language. The concerning part isn\u2019t where we are, but how quickly we\u2019re getting there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if we add to that the fact that AI systems aren\u2019t developed or controlled in a centralized manner\u2014rather by a mix of public, private, state, and decentralized actors\u2014the risk is amplified. Because the most powerful technology in history still doesn\u2019t have global governance mechanisms that match its scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For Avin, the time to act is now. Before complexity and dependence leave us with no room to maneuver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">So, what do we do in the meantime?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Faced with a landscape where the risks aren\u2019t immediate but are definitely growing, and where uncertainty reigns, the inevitable question is: what can we do right now? Shahar Avin doesn\u2019t just paint apocalyptic scenarios\u2014he also outlines practical ways to reduce the risk. His central premise is clear: we\u2019re not doomed to disaster, but we need to prepare better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His proposals are pragmatic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Develop institutions prepared for uncertainty<\/strong><br>One of Avin\u2019s most striking ideas is that our current systems\u2014political, regulatory, and scientific\u2014aren\u2019t designed to anticipate risks that have a very low probability but a very high impact. He argues we need new structures capable of thinking long-term, with political independence and sustained resources, similar to meteorological institutes for climate or central banks for economic stability.<br>Institutions like the AI Safety Institute in the UK, where Avin collaborates, are a first step. But one alone isn\u2019t enough. \u201cWe need many agencies, with different cultures and methodologies, that can challenge each other,\u201d he proposes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Make AI safety a global scientific priority<\/strong><br>Avin insists that research in AI safety should be as strategic as cybersecurity or medical research. This includes studying how AI might develop dangerous goals, how to detect early signs of misalignment, and how to build robust technical safeguards.<br>Moreover, this research must be transparent, interdisciplinary, and publicly funded to avoid market incentives pushing for faster, more powerful, and more impactful systems overshadowing safety considerations.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Foster a culture of responsibility among developers<\/strong><br>The third path is less about institutions and more about culture. Avin suggests that engineers, researchers, and entrepreneurs working in advanced AI should adopt a mindset similar to those handling hazardous materials. Not because they\u2019re building weapons, but because the potential for harm exists. Like other high-risk industries, there needs to be a culture of caution, documentation, peer review, and traceability.<br>\u201cIt\u2019s not about halting progress,\u201d he clarifies. \u201cIt\u2019s about making sure progress doesn\u2019t steamroll us in the process.\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In short: an AI doesn\u2019t need to be self-aware or evil to jeopardize humanity\u2019s future. It just needs to be useful, ubiquitous, hard to dismantle\u2026 and misaligned. Shahar Avin\u2019s work is a reminder\u2014to governments, businesses, and citizens alike\u2014that we shouldn\u2019t wait for that to happen before we act.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Can AI spiral out of control and endanger humanity? Shahar Avin explores the most extreme scenarios at the Future Trends Forum<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":25662,"template":"","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_oaas_summary":"This article explores the profound societal impact of artificial intelligence (AI), emphasizing the risks of uncontrolled development and misalignment with human values. Shahar Avin, a researcher at Cambridge\u2019s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, highlights that AI\u2019s greatest threat lies not in embodied robots but in autonomous systems deeply embedded in critical infrastructure. Such \"systemically irreplaceable\" AI could make strategic decisions independently, potentially pursuing goals that conflict with humanity\u2019s interests without malicious intent\u2014simply as a result of cold, instrumental logic. Avin warns that the rapid advancement of AI capabilities like complex optimization and manipulation, combined with the lack of global governance, amplifies this risk.\n\nComplementing Avin\u2019s perspective, Iyad Rahwan from the Max Planck Institute focuses on AI\u2019s social dimension, cautioning against opaque AI-driven decision-making that undermines democratic oversight and trust. Both experts agree humanity is unprepared for these emerging challenges.\n\nTo mitigate these risks, Avin proposes pragmatic measures: establishing institutions designed for long-term risk assessment, prioritizing AI safety research with transparency and public funding, and fostering a culture of responsibility among AI developers akin to that in high-risk industries. Ultimately, the article stresses the urgency of proactive governance and ethical development to prevent AI from becoming an uncontrollable force that jeopardizes humanity\u2019s future.","_oaas_audio_url":"https:\/\/www.fundacionbankinter.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/summary-25661-1764627315.mp3"},"categories":[204],"class_list":["post-25661","noticias","type-noticias","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science-and-technology"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>What if AI spirals out of control? Shahar Avin highlights the existential risks - Fundaci\u00f3n Innovaci\u00f3n Bankinter<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Can AI spiral out of control and endanger humanity? 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