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For years, sustainability strategies have focused primarily on reducing carbon emissions, targeting the carbon footprint as the main adversary in combating climate change. However, given mounting ecological, social, and geopolitical pressures, this narrow focus is insufficient. The broader challenge now is ensuring safe and sustainable access to essential life-supporting systems such as energy, water, and food, which are deeply interconnected. The Bankinter Innovation Foundation’s Megatrends 2025 report emphasizes the need for a systemic, holistic approach to sustainability, recognizing that energy, agriculture, and water cannot be managed in isolation if lasting resilience is to be achieved amid a growing global population and climate stress.
Energy remains central to the debate, yet the transition from fossil fuels is complex and slow. Despite the growth of renewables like solar and wind, fossil fuels still account for over 80% of global energy consumption, with significant material and political barriers ahead. Innovations in technology and integrated systems—combining renewable energy, water management, and food production—are crucial, but require substantial investment, supportive policies, and realistic expectations. European initiatives and urban pilot projects exemplify how integrated, localized solutions can be effective and replicable. Ultimately, the transition demands a multifaceted, context-specific approach driven by smart infrastructure and coherent policies, with success contingent on committed, science-based action rather than optimistic assumptions.
Moving away from the fragmented "less carbon" paradigm to a systemic view is not just desirable: it is imperative.
For years, the strategies of Sustainability have been formulated around a single axis: the reduction of emissions. Carbon, and its footprint, has become the visible and quantifiable enemy of the fight against climate change. But in a context of growing ecological, social and geopolitical tensions, this partial view is no longer enough. Today, a broader question arises: how to ensure safe and sustainable access to the systems that actually sustain life – energy, water and food – on a planet under multiple pressures?
The report Megatrends 2025 by the Bankinter Innovation Foundation points out precisely this need to abandon fragmented approaches to embrace an interconnected, holistic vision. Energy cannot be isolated from water; Agriculture cannot be designed apart from energy consumption or water availability. Only a systemic design can generate structural and lasting resilience on a planet whose population continues to grow and concentrate in increasingly limited and populated climate bands.
The energy issue
However, the energy issue continues to be the protagonist of the debate and, as Vaclav Smil, Czech-Canadian scientist and professor emeritus at the University of Manitoba, one of the most influential thinkers on energy, sustainability and complex systems, recalls, “replacing 80% of the fossil fuels used globally is a very, very, very difficult matter”.
In addition, he stresses: “We are a civilization based on fossil fuels. Our material wealth, our quality of life — we owe almost everything, more than 90 percent, to fossil fuels.” This perspective invites us to abandon voluntarist discourses and embrace realism: moving towards a truly sustainable model requires decades, sustained investments and decisions guided by science, not only by political ambition.
In fact, although the dominant discourse celebrates the growth of renewable energies, the global reality remains strongly anchored in fossil fuels. According to the latest data available from the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2023 81.5% of the world’s primary energy consumption came from coal, oil and gas. However, in Europe, this figure fell to 67%, thanks to more aggressive policies and greater electrification of the system.
The truth is that the energy transition is not without physical limits or political obstacles. If, on the one hand, the demand for critical materials will skyrocket in the coming years, on the other, international fragmentation will complicate the adoption of shared policies. The direction is correct but the road is still very long.
By 2025, the IEA It estimates that total energy spending will reach $3.3 trillion, of which $2.2 trillion will be allocated to clean technologies (renewables, nuclear, grids, storage). Despite being a record, this volume represents only 37% of what is needed to meet the goal of zero emissions, as the IEA’s own estimates calculate a need of between 4.8 and 5 trillion per year until 2030-2050. In this context,thinking about the evolution of the global energy paradigm requires realism.
The Renewables continue to be the spearhead of change. The Solar energy is the fastest-growing: its global installed capacity now exceeds 1,400 GW, generating 5.5% of the world’s electricity. Wind power is following strongly, and new technologies such as green hydrogen or second-life batteries promise to complement the mix. Energy Nuclear power accounts for 9% of global electricity generation, but some countries consider it essential to maintain the stability of the system. However, if we follow current policies, fossil fuels will still account for 62% of primary energy in 2050.
A complicated transition that involves innovation
These data confirm the difficulty of the transition. According to Smil: “Renewable energy seems like a great solution, but it’s extremely material-intensive.” For example, “an electric car needs 85 kg of copper, compared to 25 kg for a conventional one. If we multiply by 1,500 million vehicles, we are talking about 150 million tons of copper.” In addition to copper, the energy transition will require lithium, nickel, cobalt and rare earths in unprecedented volumes.
Therefore, rather than eliminating an energy source, or looking for alternatives that solve everything, it is a matter of completely redesigning the entire supply and distribution system of the ‘primary sources of life’, including water and food. Emerging technologies that can accelerate the transition include flow batteries, predictive water management systems, food biomanufacturing, new low-impact materials, and, of course, artificial intelligence applied to energy control.
However, as he stresses Dimitri Zenghelis, an economist at the University of Cambridge and the London School of Economics, who advises governments and institutions on climate economics, innovation and sustainable development, “innovation does not arise in a vacuum. It is shaped by policies, institutions and incentives.”
Therefore, he adds, it is necessary to “change the idea according to which all this represents only an expense: it is an investment in future prosperity. The State must take the initiative to direct the economy towards opportunities.” If this were done, says the expert, “Between 50% and 90% of the Net Zero goal could be covered in just 5 years, and at no additional cost”.
Multiple Answers to Multiple Problems
Despite representing only 7% of the world’s population, and with projections of a further decline, Europe is trying to assume a position of regulatory leadership in the energy transition. Strategies such as the European Green Deal, the Horizon Europe programme and the Farm to Fork initiative point precisely to a growing integration between agricultural, energy and environmental policies, the same as the Water-Energy-Food Nexus approach, promoted by the FAO.
Cities, in particular, are taking on a leading role as innovation laboratories. In Amsterdam, Copenhagen and Milan, for example, urban models are being developed that integrate renewable energy, circular water economy and local food production. The case of Hyllie, in Malmö (Sweden), is paradigmatic.
This neighbourhood was designed as a sustainability pilot: its energy grid combines solar, wind, biogas, industrial waste heat and urban waste. The entire system is managed by a digital platform called Ectogrid, which balances supply and demand in real time. The model has been replicated in Silvertown (London) and other European cities. These types of initiatives show that integrating systems is not only possible, but also cost-effective and replicable.
Countries such as Spain, Italy and Portugal – affected by water stress – concentrate the majority of pilot projects in systemic integration, which positions southern Europe as a pioneer in this approach. In Andalusia, Recent studies have identified synergies between solar-powered desalination, precision agriculture and water reuse, capable of generating cross-benefits for each sector. For its part, the Netherlands is leading innovation in Vertical farming combining artificial intelligence, closed water systems and renewable sources.
What seems clear is that there will not be a single miracle solution. The transition will be built with multiple sources, adapted to local contexts, supported by smart infrastructure and guided by coherent public policies. As Zenghelis warns: “Complacent optimism is like waiting for Santa Claus. What we need is conditional optimism: we will get what we want if we do what it takes.”
