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The 2019 Bankinter Innovation Foundation report “Commercialisation of Space” forecasted key trends in the space industry, including intensified geopolitical competition, the rise of private sector involvement, advances in launch technology, and the growth of small satellites and space manufacturing. Five years on, these predictions have largely materialized. The U.S. and China have accelerated their independent space programs amid geopolitical tensions, with China achieving lunar landings and planning crewed missions by 2030. Private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin have become prominent players, driving innovation, cost reduction, and ambitious exploration projects. Technological advancements include reusable rockets, exemplified by SpaceX’s Starship, and the proliferation of CubeSats, which enable flexible, cost-effective missions. Space manufacturing has progressed with 3D printing and robotics, improving production capabilities. New commercial space stations are being developed, expanding access beyond the ISS, while space communications have evolved with advanced antenna systems and decentralized ground stations. Growing space debris concerns have sparked initiatives for debris removal, such as ClearSpace’s planned 2025 mission.
Spain’s space sector has grown significantly, marked by increased ESA funding, the creation of the Spanish Space Agency, and strong government support for startups. Spanish companies, notably PLD Space, are advancing reusable launch vehicles like Miura 1 and Miura 5, aiming for commercial orbital launches by 2026. Collaborative projects like the Atlantic Constellation consortium strengthen Spain’s role in Earth observation and telecommunications. Overall, the space industry today reflects dynamic geopolitical competition, private sector leadership, and rapid technological innovation, laying a foundation for continued exploration and commercialization of space.
An analysis of how space trends and technologies have evolved over the past five years.
In 2019, the Bankinter Innovation Foundation’s Future Trends Forum report “Commercialisation of Space” analysed technological and scientific advances and emerging trends in the space industry, anticipating a promising future, full of challenges and commercial opportunities. More than thirty world experts on the subject participated in that think tank, including such relevant figures as James Hinds, Cynthia Bouthot, Jason Dunn, Michael Lopez-Alegria and our patron and former NASA Administrator, Charles F. Bolden.
Now, almost five years later, it is time to assess how these forecasts have materialized and what their impact has been on space development.
The New Space Race: The U.S. and China
2019: The focus was on international collaboration, although an intensification of the space race was anticipated, not only for scientific interest but also for prestige and geopolitical power.
2024: Since 2019, there has been a strong push from governments to develop independent space capabilities, driven by a deteriorating geopolitical environment. This is reflected in
The rise of the private sector in space exploration
2019: A more prominent role for the private sector in space exploration was forecast. Private companies were emerging in space launches and technologies, focusing on innovation and cost reduction.
2024: This trend has been confirmed, coining the term NewSpace, which encompasses relatively new aerospace companies with a clear commercial orientation. Companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin and others have taken on key roles, not only in launches, but also in more ambitious exploration projects. In addition, robust consolidation has been observed in mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the satellite communications and Earth observation sector.
Advancements in Launch Technology
2019: Major advances in launch technology, including reusable rockets, were anticipated.
2024: SpaceX has dominated this realm with its frequent launches and the introduction of the Starship. Other competitors such as ULA and Arianespace have also made significant progress. In the field of space rockets to put small satellites into orbit, the Spanish PLD Space stands out.
Small satellites and space manufacturing
2019: The expectation was for growth in the use of small satellites and advances in space manufacturing, anticipating greater flexibility and cost reductions in space missions.
2024: Small satellites, such as CubeSats, have revolutionized the space industry, offering cheaper, faster, and more flexible missions. Space manufacturing has undergone significant innovations, with 3D printing and advanced robotics standing out. These technologies have improved the quality and efficiency of the production of space components, facilitating more complex and ambitious constructions in space.
Commercial space stations
2019: The ISS dominated research in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) with limited access for private entities.
2024: Projects such as Nanoracks to build a commercial space station, Starlab, scheduled to launch in 2028, are making LEO accessible to medium-sized businesses. These initiatives are opening up access to unique conditions in orbit for scientific breakthroughs in areas such as biology, physics, and new materials.
Innovations in space communications
2019: Communications relied primarily on large, expensive satellites.
2024: Advanced communication systems have been developed in space, using high-capacity antennas, ground stations, and LEO satellites to improve communications efficiency and security. For example, technologies such as ultra-flat, interference-free antennas and the decentralization of processing power in ground stations are transforming space communications.
Space Debris Management
2019: Concern about space debris was beginning to be recognized.
2024: The increase in space debris in LEO has led to the development of solutions for space traffic management and waste disposal. Companies are already developing technologies to remove inoperative satellites and other space debris, such as ClearSpace, a spin-off of the Swiss Space Center EPFL, which plans to remove the first debris from space by 2025.
Commercialization of space from Spain: evolution and prospects
Spain has undergone a significant transformation in its space sector since 2019, consolidating itself as a key player in the European and global space arena. Below are some of the most outstanding advances and the current situation of the space sector in Spain:
Strengthening and participation in ESA: Historically, Spain has played an active role in the European Space Agency (ESA), increasing its budget allocated to the agency to about 300 million euros per year. This commitment to ESA has been a fundamental pillar in the development of the Spanish space sector.
Creation of the Spanish Space Agency (ESA): Recently, Spain has launched its own national space agency, the Spanish Space Agency (ESA), based in Seville. This development is a significant step towards the centralization and coordination of the country’s space efforts, covering aspects such as technological development, Earth observation, security, and telecommunications.
Encouraging startups and new projects: The Spanish government has shown strong support for the space startup sector, allocating an initial budget of more than €700 million to ESA and providing funding for the development of a home microlauncher. Among the most prominent companies is PLD Space, which is developing suborbital and orbital launch vehicles, such as the Miura 1 and Miura 5, and is probably the main beneficiary of funding for the development of the microlauncher.
Consortium for the Atlantic Constellation: Leading Spanish companies in the space sector, such as Elecnor Deimos, Alén Space, DHV Technology and SATLANTIS, have formed a consortium for the development of the Atlantic Constellation. This project is a collaborative effort to strengthen the Spanish space industry and respond to global needs in fields such as Earth observation and telecommunications. Hispasat and PLD Space have recently joined.
And speaking of PLD Space, this company has made significant strides in the development of reusable rockets, with the goal of providing commercial orbital and suborbital access to small satellites. In 2023, the company successfully carried out the suborbital launch of its Miura 1 rocket. The company’s current project focuses on the development of Miura 5, a rocket capable of placing satellites weighing up to 500 kg into orbit. Miura 5 is expected to be commercially available by 2026. PLD Space has ambitious plans to conduct at least 15 annual launches from the European space center in Kourou, French Guiana, once Miura 5 enters service.
If you want to know more about the current state of space commercialization in Spain, you can read “2024: Challenges, challenges and new opportunities for the Space industry“.
As we can see, the space industry has undergone a significant evolution, driven by geopolitical competition, the rise of the private sector and technological advances. These developments set the stage for future innovations and explorations in the vast cosmos.
We invite you to read our report: “Commercialization of space“.
